Purim 2026, the fall of the Persian kingdom?

In June 2025, Israel and Iran clashed militarily in a brief twelve-day war. The two countries, separated by thousands of kilometers, used their ballistic and aerial weaponry to strike each other. The United States, concerned with preserving its regional interests and preventing a regional conflagration, called a halt to the conflict after striking Iranian nuclear sites with armor-piercing bombs, a capability unique to the US.

The conclusion of this short war is as follows: Iran is weakened but is far from being brought to its knees, and even less from ceasing its activities in favor of obtaining nuclear weapons.

On the Israeli side, the assessment is mixed: certainly, the anti-aircraft systems stopped most of the Iranian missiles (86%, the rest having partly fallen in deserted areas) without too much damage, especially human damage, but the Iranian nuclear and ballistic program remains and is only delayed.

Therefore, a new war/operation was inevitable.

Which brings us back to the burning issue at hand. For the past month, massive demonstrations have ignited Iran, fueled by an economic crisis, the collapse of the Iranian rial, and widespread unemployment. The Iranian population, largely educated and modern, is suffering under the regime's mismanagement, rife with corruption and pervasive religious strictness.

However, the Iranian regime had absolutely no desire to be challenged by these demonstrations, which brought together various segments of Iranian society (students, shopkeepers, ethnic minorities, etc.). In response, the regime deployed an extremely violent crackdown, using its political police, regime militias, and religious authorities.

For approximately two weeks, in a complete fog following the regime's internet blackout, Iranian authorities violently repressed these demonstrations. The figures are difficult to assess: Iranian authorities announce some 3,000 deaths, but various NGOs and international institutions speak of at least 20,000 deaths, not counting the thousands imprisoned in some of the worst prison conditions in the world (torture, rape, etc.).

US President Trump had announced that the US would support the protests and warned Iranian authorities not to target demonstrators under threat of intervention. Did this galvanize the protesters to brave the risks and risk their lives?

The Iranian people are known for their pride and their rejection of foreign intervention in their internal affairs. It therefore seems unlikely that this played a decisive role. Nevertheless, Trump's statement could not go unanswered in the face of the mullahs' regime's ongoing repression.

Towards war?

In recent days, the highest alert level has been activated in Israel for the population. Shelters have been opened and prevention messages are being broadcast. Logistically, the American military is deploying its largest military armada in decades. Fighter jets, warships, submarines... The American war machine appears to be preparing for an inevitable conflict.

However, on the political front, businessman Trump is trying to resolve the military escalation through negotiations.

These negotiations include three specific demands of the Iranian regime:

1. Stop the nuclear program with close international monitoring (unlike the previous agreements of 2015, made by Obama).

2. Stop the ballistic missile program aimed at equipping Iran with ever more advanced technologies (and necessary for using nuclear weapons).

3. Cease its influence over the militias in the region.

If we set aside the third point, since the pro-Iranian militias are de facto largely weakened thanks, in particular, to Israel (war with Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas...), the first two points seem totally unacceptable to Iran, whose regime's survival depends in part on maintaining such a policy of deterrence.

It is important to remember that Iran's only real military weapon is its missile arsenal, capable of striking targets thousands of kilometers away. Its air force is largely obsolete, as are its army and navy, especially since this conventional army faces competition from the regime's unofficial military: the Revolutionary Guards.

The war last June demonstrated this: Israel struck Iran without its planes being affected, due to the prior destruction of Iranian anti-aircraft systems.

One final point: Trump is embarrassed by this war he doesn't want. Indeed, it completely undermines his political plans, especially with the midterm elections coming this fall. The deaths of American soldiers abroad would be catastrophic for him, given his commitment to a retreat to America and its traditional sphere of influence. He, who prefers diplomacy to military action, nevertheless has no choice but to engage in a confrontation whose nature is still unknown.

Will it be a matter of simple strikes on Iran or a real destruction of its nuclear and ballistic missile program?

One thing is certain: if the Americans want to limit the confrontation, Israel, for its part, will want to go all the way in destroying the Iranian ballistic arsenal, something the IDF was unable to do last June.

Furthermore, the question of regime change is often raised in the media and by politicians. In reality, it seems virtually impossible to achieve through external intervention. Only the Iranian people themselves can overthrow this fanatical yet highly pragmatic regime from within.

Purim 2026

As the Jewish people prepare to celebrate Purim (March 2nd), the parallel with the story of Queen Esther and Mordecai seems inevitable in this context. The Jewish people were then threatened with extermination by Haman (a high-ranking Persian official of Amalekite origin) because of his jealousy and deep hatred.

An irrational hatred, of which Amalek was the precursor: this grandson of Esau attacked the Hebrew people as they were leaving Egypt. This attack took place in the Sinai Peninsula, several hundred kilometers from the supposed territory of the Amalekites (it is believed they lived in the Negev Desert). Some historians suggest that the Amalekites may have lived in the Judean mountains.

In any case, this tribe sent its warriors to attack the Hebrew people in the midst of their pilgrimage through arid and waterless places.

“Amalek came and fought with Israel at Rephidim. 9 Then Moses said to Joshua, ‘Choose some men for us and go out and fight against Amalek. Tomorrow I will stand on the top of the hill with the staff of God in my hand.’ 10 Joshua did as Moses had told him and fought against Amalek.”

Aaron and Hur held his hands, one on one side, the other on the other; and his hands remained steady until sunset. 13 And Joshua defeated Amalek and his people with the edge of the sword. 14 The Lord said to Moses, “Write this in a book as a memorial, and tell Joshua that I will blot out the memory of Amalek from under heaven.”

16 He said, “Because a hand was lifted up against the throne of the Lord, the Lord will have war with Amalek from generation to generation.”

(Exodus 17)

Biblical commentators have portrayed Amalek as the hereditary and irrational enemy of Israel: driven by a profound hatred of God, these men are capable of attacking God's people in an unreasonable manner, seeking to wipe them off the face of the earth. This was the case with Haman in his time, even as the Jews participated in the flourishing development of Persia.

This was the case with Hitler, closer to us, and it is also the case with the current Iranian regime (and not with the population, which is paradoxically rather favorable to Israel).

Since the mullahs came to power in 1979, Israel has been considered the "little Satan," the weapon of choice for Iranian religious authorities. This small country, thousands of kilometers away, obsesses the regime, which swears only by its outright destruction.

This explains, in particular, the formation of a network of militias throughout the Middle East to encircle this enemy (Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza...) despite strategic common sense and the well-being of its population.

However, one conclusion remains regarding the fate of Amalek and his descendants in history: God does not allow His people to be wiped from the earth and thus attacked. Like Haman in his time, the situation turned against him. These days of misfortune for the Jewish people were transformed into days of joy and celebration, still commemorated today as a divine deliverance from the enemy, Amalek.

“17 Remember what Amalek did to you on the way you came out of Egypt,

19 When the Lord your God has delivered you from all your enemies around you and grants you rest in the land he is giving you as an inheritance and possession, then you shall blot out the memory of Amalek from under heaven.”

(Deuteronomy 25)